现货白银供需前景展望
关键字:现货白银供需前景展望
自古以来,白银作为一种投资工具,白银的地位仅次于黄金,被称作是“穷人的黄金”。其中的很多原因都可以从我今天将描述的供需平衡中看出来。在这篇文章中,主要将论述的是白银市场将会在结构上不断进步,未来在很长时期内,现货白银将不断走强。
白银的珍稀之处
通过对白银市场供需平衡的研究,白银的珍稀之处很大程度来源于开采的问题
白银开采,是指白银市场中65%的供给都来自于铜、铅、锌,当然还有金的共生或伴生矿。这两个含义:矿产银的生产与银价无关,当世界需要铜铅锌等基本金属时,就像最近5年以来的情况一样,当世界像一直以来的情况一样需要金时,白银就理所应当的被生产出来;其次,由于这样的原因,你无法构造出一条有意义的原生银生产成本曲线,这意味着无法从生产者一级构造边际成本,从而定价,这样在矿山生产变化的时候,银价不会产生相应的合理反映。这对于白银的估值将会产生低估
白银价格近1-2年走势与其他的商品相似,在受到金融危机的影响期间表现低迷,但是白银价格随后逐渐恢复。我们认为白银市场正在经历结构调整。是的,白银的矿业生产仍然对于价格缺乏弹性,而且毫无疑问现在白银的回收量仍然很大,但是我们看到的是在更广阔的领域的更多的终端消费者的进入,他们会直接消耗大量的白银而不会回收。因此,我们认为未来黄金和白银的比价会缩减。在未来相当长的时期内,白银价格会维持在更高的价位上。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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