炒黄金需要知道的风向标
关键字:炒黄金需要知道的风向标
1、美国国内经济。对于如何炒黄金,先要弄明白,影响金价波动的主要因素是哪些。国际黄金市场的长期走势,一直被美国的宏观经济发展趋势和推行的财政、货币政策所左右。而市场的短期波动,则取决于一个时期黄金与美元的供求关系变化,如国家干预,投机资金大量涌入和流出,传统黄金饰品消费旺季和淡季,黄金生产产量增加或减少等。
2、欧元走势。欧元等非美强势货币,与黄金、石油等大宗商品一样,都是以美元做标价的。正因为如此,一般情况下,黄金的走势与欧元呈正相关,呈同步涨跌趋势。而黄金的走势与美元指数呈负相关,即美指上扬,金价回落。而美指下挫,则金价上扬。当然,当美国经济与欧元区经济同步衰退之时,黄金作为信用资产和经济衰退的避风港,将背离欧元的走势,而走出独立的行情。投资黄金,还应将欧元区经济特别是德国、法国经济作为美国经济的参照物,将欧元作为美元的参照物,予以关注。
3、原油价格。经验数据表明,油价与金价同步涨跌的几率在80%左右。通常情况下,油价上扬,金价也紧追其后上扬。油价下跌,金价也随之下跌。油价与金价涨跌也有背离的时候。但通常情况下这种背离将通过市场自主调节而最终在方向上趋于一致。投资黄金应密切关注国际原油市场,关注那些尚未与美国结盟的石油主产国及其相互关系中的摩擦、斗争与演变,以便在这种因地缘政治而引发的油价波动中规避风险并获利。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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