王垣鑫：现货黄金转折点
上周现货黄金整体走势基本维持三角形整理，虽然是震荡只要保持三角形区间内高抛低吸操作思路即可，但当中一些比较关键的转折点还是需要去回顾一下。
1.经过周一一轮探底回升并且破高的走势过后，周二现货黄金往上攻击下行趋势线两次失败后高位回落，此时金价短时间见顶情况已经相对明显，后面第三次上攻失败收出长上影k线的时候可以视为空单入场信号，或者为前方空单加仓信号，后市看回高位震荡区间底部1258及前低1250，最后看向后市多空转换的关键位置，也是大双顶的颈线位置1245一线。
2.金价高位回落顺利突破高位震荡区间下轨1258一线及前低1250，但最后临门一脚1245并不能一举突破，反而在低位形成头肩底形态，整体波动范围1248附近-1253附近，幅度5美元左右，即此次头肩底的反弹空间大概到1258-1259附近，并且可以基本确定一个情况就是双顶形态突破颈线生效的可能性较小了，前方空单可以离场并反手做多。
3.行情比较符合预期，根据头肩底的整体幅度金价反弹回1258-1259附近已经基本到位，现阶段离三角形震荡区间上轨还有一定空间，macd仍在金叉，但kdj三线死叉向下暗示后市依然有机会往上走但短时间内需要调整，多单仍可继续持有看上轨，4小时后kdj仍没有金叉迹象反而macd指标双线高位死叉，这时候多单稳健可以全部离场，再过4条线直接在高位形成头肩顶形态，此为做空信号，不过空间依旧不看太大，1256-1259附近的头肩顶往下翻大概看至1253附近。
4.金价在做出头肩顶之后顺利走出应有跌幅至1253附近，空单先减仓，因本波下跌起点并不在上轨，有反弹无力的迹象，剩余仓位可以看至三角形下轨甚至下破下轨，但3小时过后可以发现金价非但没有继续下行，反而连macd，kdj都做出了金叉，暗示三角形的震荡区间已经收窄，空单剩余仓位出场。
5.金价于1253一线强势反弹，此时此刻可以发现均线系统已经开始呈现多头排列，暗示经过长时间的整理过后金价极有可能已经选择一个往上突破的方向，果然后市连续大阳往上突破，只要后市能站稳1265一线即可视为上破有效，后市看向1270，1280一线。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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