中国降准降息对金价的影响
关键词:中国降准降息对金价的影响
继人民币贬值后,中国央行继续祭出降准降息大旗,缓解了中国市民的房贷利压力,但同时也使得市民的存款利息降低,那么,对于黄金投资,又将会有些什么影响呢?
全球股市回暖 黄金下行风险加剧
中国本次降准降息的主要原因为了解救由于人民币贬值而崩盘的股市,虽然昨日中国股市表现欠佳,依然收跌于2927.29,但今日A股强势反弹,上证指数站上3000点关口,并录得了逾5%的年内第三大单日涨幅。
此外,海外由于对中国经济的担忧消退,美国股市全线反弹,录得四年来最大单日涨幅,道琼工业指数急升3.95%,标准普尔500指数劲扬72.90点。欧洲股市则在中国央行宣布降准降息后急升逾4%。
总体来说,全球股市因为中国降准降息而回暖,这或将提振投资者对股市的信心,从而引起市场投资资金重新流向股市,这可能会使黄金市场流失一部分投资资金,同时,避险消退也会引起黄金需求削减,这均会增加金价下行的风险。
经济回暖 打压黄金需求
此前人民币贬值,引起了金融市场较大的动荡,此外,还引发了市场对全球经济的担忧,尤其以美联储为最。在人民币贬值前,美联储在考虑是否加息时,就比较担忧中国经济放缓带来的风险,人民币贬值更是让美联储官员更加谨慎。然而降准降息的决策大大缓解市场对中国经济的担忧,降息降准能够刺激中国消费与投资升温,这利好于中国的经济的发展,同时也可能带动全球经济复苏,这么一来,市场的担忧避险情绪将会逐渐降温,从而削减市场对黄金的需求,打压金价。
总体来看,中国降准降息会引起国际金价下行,但这可能只是短期内的影响,因为若要看长期还得结合经过降准降息后中国的经济发展水平以及其他国家受到的影响情况来分析。另外,从长线来看,降息意味着人民币贬值,市民可能会有人民币持续贬值的担忧,从而刺激国内市场的黄金需求升温,从而引起国内金价升水,届时可能会因此推高国际金价。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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