美国核心PCE数据对金价有什么影响
关键词:美国核心PCE数据对金价有什么影响
美国核心PCE数据能够较为真实的反映出美国的通胀水平,然而通胀往往能够左右美联储实施的货币政策,而美元又对黄金有直接影响,那么,核心PCE数据对金价的影响是怎样的呢?接下来,且看大田小编来为大家分析。
从下图能看到,自进入2015年以来,核心PCE数据大多保持在同一水平,现在,小编就抽取其中不同的变动情况来举例说明。
一、核心PCE较前值增加时
从理论来说,核心PCE出现增长时,表示美国个人消费支出增加,这利好于带动美国经济的增长,对通胀水平起到提振作用,若能够达到美联储通胀目标,很可能会让美联储提早加息,从而大大提振美元,打压黄金。
二、核心PCE较前值下滑时
从理论来说,核心PCE数据出现下滑的情况刚好与增加的情况相反,其会不利于美元,而利好黄金。
三、核心PCE维持与前期不变时
从理论来说,核心PCE不变,表示个人消费情况不变,一般对黄金的影响不太大,但如果是长期维持在通胀目标2%以下,美联储很可能要实施相对宽松的货币政策一段时间,因为只有这样,才能提高通胀水平。所以此时而言,数据不变,是对美元构成轻微的打压作用,从而使黄金得益。如果是长期维持在2%以上,美联储就可能要持续加息来控制通胀,此时就会对美元构成利好,从而打压黄金。
综上所述,相较于前值,若核心PCE增长时,利空黄金;下滑时,利好黄金;持平时,影响一般不会太大。但大田小编提醒大家,还需要结合核心PCE的预测值以及当时其他数据或背景来判断。或者大家也可以每日关注大田官网,大田每日都会更新最新的黄金资讯,以及专业操盘老师的分析和策略,炒黄金的朋友们可以参考参考。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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