实物需求旺季不旺 现货黄金承压下行
关键字：现货黄金走势分析
【行情回顾】
周四欧洲盘中，国际现货黄金一度下破1280支撑位置，直逼前期低点1277，但是欧洲盘中略有回稳，并顺利修复1280位置，并出现小幅震荡上扬迹象，但是短期内黄金走势仍然为空头所主导，虽然在大幅下跌后黄金很可能会出现技术性反弹，但是反弹过后的黄金仍将重归跌势。
【基本面分析】
目前已经进入8月中下旬，按照过往经验，目前应该是厂商备货之时，黄金表现低迷，打破了过去4年逢8月必涨的定律。从需求结构来看，支撑需求的因素相对较少，黄金后市恐面临进一步下跌风险。
黄金实物需求低迷。世界黄金协会近期发布的第二季度报告，确认了实物市场需求缺乏。报告显示二季度全球黄金需求下降16%，中国第二季黄金消费需求同比下降52%至192.5吨，印度下降39%至204.1吨。全球金饰需求在二季度下降30%，金币和金条需求下降56%，而黄金矿企则有50吨的黄金被囤积对冲。二季度金饰需求下降至509.6吨，这是2012年第四季度以来的最低水平。金条需求下降57%至212.1吨，金币需求下降50%至46.3吨。全球消费者需求下降42%至784.9吨，这对于黄金价格来说不亚于一个重大的利空消息。
日内支撑位：1277 1274 1270
日内压力位：1280 1285 1293
【技术分析】
由黄金日K线图上看，黄金价格出现5连阴，在连续数日下跌后，黄金已经出现彻底的破位走势，均线系统呈现空头排列，同时短期均线和长期均线出现高位死叉迹象，在黄金价格的上方构成强力的压制，因此日内黄金尚难以出现上涨，建议炒金的投资者适当做空，介入目标1284，盈利目标1277.
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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