黄金净多头持续下降 现货黄金仍有压力
关键字:现货黄金走势分析
【行情回顾】
周二亚市早盘,国际现货黄金持续交投在1308美元附近,而市场仍然将焦点集中在俄罗斯局势当中,而隔夜欧美股市也出现了不同程度的上涨,吸引了部分资金流入,而在俄罗斯局势尚未有明显变化的现在,现货黄金交易价格仍将维持震荡整理。
【基本面分析】
美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)上周五公布的交易员持仓报告(COT)表明,投机者连续第二周削减多头头寸,削减幅度为5月来最大。对冲基金和投机者8月5日当周,大型投机者和对冲基金持有的Comex期金非商业合约净多头达121463张,由前一周的139153张合约下降17690涨。净多头头寸的减少包括多头头寸减少12594张和空头头寸增加5096。
而巴克莱资本认为近期金价的上涨可能是短暂的,鉴于广泛的投资者兴趣未能跟进,实物需求近期也没有出现明显改善的迹象。黄金缺乏广泛的投资支撑,黄金ETF持有量今年来已下跌了46吨,在2季度总体持平。地缘政治紧张局势未能激发黄金投资者兴趣,黄金ETF持有量本月下跌了6.3吨,也证明了投资者对中长期的黄金走势并不十分看好。
【技术分析】
根据我们对伦敦金技术分析所得,由黄金日K线上看,昨日黄金价格出现小幅下跌,在日线上收出一根小阴线,短期内多空争夺于1308位置附近的30日均线压力位,而近期的强压力位置则位于布林线上轨的1320位置,因此我们也不难发现近期黄金的震荡走势主要集中在1306和1318附近。日内下方还是需关注1305位置支撑位,其次是10日均线1298位置支撑位,而KDJ则出现死叉的迹象,因此不排除黄金短期内会出现回调走势。
日内支撑位:1308 1305 1300
日内压力位:1310 1316 1318
由于近期地缘政治问题成为了黄金价格上涨的最大凭依,加上短期内地缘政治危机仍然没有解决的迹象,所以短期内我们认为黄金出现大幅下行的可能性较小。但是黄金在近期走势当中,受压于1315压力位置的迹象相当明显,加上技术指标较为偏向于空头,因此我们大田环球贵金属建议投资者逢高做空,建议介入位置1313,盈利目标1305.
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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