欧银决议失色 两大地缘危机助黄金上涨
关键词：现货黄金行情走势
【行情回顾】
因伊拉克和乌克兰紧张局势继续升级引发避险买盘，同时欧洲央行周四维持利率在纪录低位，市场预期乌克兰危机加大了欧元区疲弱且不平坦的经济复苏面临的风险，国际金价受到提振一度刷新两周高位，目前交投于1320美元附近。
【基本面分析】
美元似乎越来越有可能朝着17个月来的最长周度连涨时间迈进。随着美国经济复苏势头增强，再加上乌克兰和中东地区紧张局势升级提高了避险资产的吸引力。周四美元指数再度重新走高，本周至今已上涨0.3%，有望连续第四周收涨。
然而，在两大地缘危机陆续被引爆的背景下，即使美元上涨也阻挡不住贵金属交易的大涨行情，而且，本周的四大央行利率决议也已注定沦为了配角。欧洲央行隔夜决定将指标再融资利率维持在0.15%的纪录低点，行长德拉基则称必要时可动用资产支撑证券化和量化宽松政策，并就地缘政治风险发出警告。尽管欧银决议一度在短时间内引发欧元波动，但大体仍处在一个区间震荡的过程中，市场对此反应并不是非常强烈。另外，今日日本央行也将公布利率决议，但市场人士预期看点不会很多。显然，地缘政治风险目前正成为市场主演，尤其是俄罗斯和西方冷战式的互相制裁，令投资者不断作出风险规避举措。
【技术分析】
从现货黄金行情上分析，在4小时图中黄金价格延续反弹。布林轨张口上行，国际金价也跟随布林上轨线向上反弹。在均线方面，5日均线向上运行，金价运行在5日均在线方，指标MACD向上运行，多头动能逐渐增强，KDJ指标双线在高位形成金叉上扬。综合来看，日内国际现货黄金价格继续向上反弹，逐渐收回前期跌幅，并逼近前期高点。但从趋势上看，市场整体维持震荡，运行缺乏方向，建议投资者可待金价回调后再入场做单，位置1315，目标看1320，止损4美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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