现货黄金低位整理 关注欧央行决议
关键字：现货黄金操作分析
欧洲盘前，国际现货黄金失守1325多空分水线，并在1323位置持续窄幅震荡，由于隔夜美国ADP就业数据表现较好，市场普遍预期今晚公布的非农就业数据将会较为优异，所以早盘黄金市场交投较为谨慎，而金价也出现了小幅度的下滑。
虽然晚间公布的非农就业数据非常重要，但是今日欧洲时间公布的欧央行利率决议也是今天的焦点所在，而当前市场普遍预期其将维持现有政策不变。而随后行长德拉基将在20:30召开新闻发布会，而投资者希望从中获得有关进一步宽松，包括欧版QE的新信息。
欧洲央行曾在6月利率决议后宣布下调利率，包括将银行存款利率下调至-0.10%的历史低位，并推出4000亿欧元的长期再融资操作(LTRO)。不过，欧洲央行并未进一步实施债券购买计划，即所谓的欧版QE。德拉基和欧银官员近期曾表示，如果有必要，欧版QE也在预备方案中。然而，此前公布的欧元区5月CPI数据仍就企稳在0.5%,与欧洲央行2%的通胀目标相去甚远，暗示欧元区仍面临着通缩的威胁。所以欧洲方面持续实行宽松的货币政策已经是板上钉钉的事。
技术分析：由现货黄金日内走势上看，早盘黄金的走势稍显弱势，由于今晚多项重磅数据出炉，市场心态仍处于谨慎状态，加上黄金在短期技术面上并不乐观，KDJ和RSI超买迹象严重，同时MACD红柱持续缩短，而黄金日内的支撑位则在于5日均线和10日均线当中，由于今晚将出炉较为重要的非农数据，所以建议大家日内做单主要以轻仓为主。
日内支撑位：1320 1314 1308
日内压力位：1327 1331 1335
由于欧洲时段有欧央行的利率决议，晚间纽约时段则有非农就业数据和失业金等重磅数据出炉，鉴于数据的不确定性，我们建议投资者在非农数据出炉之前先行观望，若非农就业数据好于市场预期，则黄金很可能会出现一波下跌，则投资者可以顺势做空，盈利目标1314。若非农就业数据坏于预期，则黄金很可能顺势突破近期压力位置1330，投资者届时可以适当追多，盈利目标1335，止损4美金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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