空头头寸剧增 黄金或否极泰来
关键字：现货黄金走势预测
欧洲盘前，国际现货黄金维持日内涨势，在亚洲早盘小幅震荡过后，现货黄金仍然出现了震荡上升，虽然周五晚间美国的就业数据较好，但对黄金构成的利空影响却相当有限，而且黄金近期累计跌幅较大，短期内在低位企稳的可能性相当之大。
美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)上周末发布的报告显示，截至上周为止，投机者持有的黄金期货净多头减少14,240手，至净多头59,151手，创今年1月21日以来最低值。其中，以对冲基金为主的大型投机者继续增加了空头仓位，较前一周多出15,957手，达到了今年1月21日以来的最高值98,181手，显示对冲基金们看空黄金的意愿持续增强。
而作为黄金实物需求消费大国的印度，其国内的黄金ETF基金也同样不看好黄金后市，数据显示，印度黄金ETF的投资在2013至2014财年下半年减少约7%，较上半年减少约5%比，降幅增大。此外，到今年4月为止，投资者们已经连续11个月流出黄金ETF，总量达240亿卢比，超过4亿美元。今年5月，印度黄金ETF的持有量下降了1.7%至14亿美元，4月总共流出2400万美元。不过，再多的利空因素，仍然未能打压近期的黄金反弹走势，毕竟黄金自身始终具备其投资价值，而物极必反，往往在持续的打压之后，黄金很可能会迎来一波反弹。
技术分析：根据我们对伦敦金行情分析所得，由黄金日K线图上看，国际现货黄金价格在1255一线位置出现持续震荡，由于该位置对于黄金来说，仍然具备一定的阻力。但是在近期黄金走势已经出现圆弧底的情况下，该阻力位置的突破也仅仅是时间问题。而由技术指标上看，黄金在突破5日均线压制之后，今日震荡走高再度突破10日均线，触底反弹的迹象相当明显，因此建议炒金的投资者可以适当逢低介入做多。
操作建议：
做多：开仓1252 止损1247 止盈1258
做空：开仓1259 止损1265 止盈1250
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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