预测金价短线反弹 关注各国黄金需求
关键字：金价反弹
昨日黄金纽约时段盘初扩大涨幅，并刷新日内1294 美元 /盎司高点，因昨晚美联储主席提名人美联储现任副主席耶伦周四在参议院银行委员会前作了大量的证词。在回答的众多问题中，市场最为关注的是耶伦对美国经济和货币政策的看法。她表示，当开始缩减QE时，将在一段时间内维持高度宽松的货币政策。
耶伦认为，过早结束QE存在风险，维持QE太长时间也是。当复苏还很脆弱时，不撤走购债措施至关重要。但QE不会永远持续下去，随着复苏持续下去，需要及时将货币政策回归正常，联储拥有退出QE的工具。购债持续的时间越长，越有必要担忧相关的风险。
耶伦称，购债措施已经对经济增长和经济前景做出了有意义的贡献。在被问及何时缩减QE时，她响应道，没有确定的时间来决定何时缩减购债规模。对于削减QE的步伐，正在寻找增长足够强劲以推动经济发展的证据。所以昨晚金价得到了十足的支持高涨至1294，大田金业 分析师相信在短期内金价会从上1330左右的价位。
另外过去两周SPDR黄金ETF持仓已累计外流2.71公吨，至865.71公吨，为4年来的最低水平。
世界黄金协会（WGC）周四将2013年印度实物金需求预估从1000公吨下调至900公吨，因该国政府严格管控黄金进口，但维持中国1000公吨的预估不变。
近月现货黄金投资需要关注的现象是多国对黄金需求有所增加，现行量化宽松政策，理论上有阻金价大幅上扬。不过，黄金持仓量持续下跌，11月13日持仓为856.71吨，反映投资需求处于低迷，黄金价格最主导因素仍是投资需求，加上退市必行，故能解释金价颇弱原因，印度政策限制金属进口，令实体需求按年减小3分之2。预测金价受到耶伦言论支持短线有所反弹，1320会有较大阻力，未破1335水平，仍属淡市,上落市中储货沽金，年底目标1200。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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