黄金的资产配置比例
关键字：黄金投资
观察不同资产类别的表现，我们发现，近一年，五年与十年黄金之绩效均远远胜过新兴市场股票、债券与全球股票。除此之外，就波动率的部分，黄金的年度投资波动率18.5%虽较债券10.7%为高，但仍小于新兴股票的19.2%，与全球股票17.4%的波动率亦相差无几。
我们以2000-2010年进行模拟投资组合配置，分析加入黄金后对投资组合绩效与风险的影响。结果发现，不论是积极型、稳健型或是保守型的投资人，加入10%的黄金配置后，中长期对于投资组合的绩效与波动率均有相对正面的帮助。
我们单纯就积极型投资人的资产配置进行观察（70%新兴股票、20%全球股票、10%债券），其10年绩效为142.8%，波动率为16.3%；但是若将70%的新兴市场股票投资比重自70%降为60%，并加入10%的黄金，其十年绩效将变为158.7%，波动率亦变为14.3%，两者均优于未加入黄金的142.8%与16.3%。
不过，黄金产品本身之波动率较高，许多投资属性较为保守的投资人也担心加入黄金后，投资组合的风险可能会变得较大。我们以保守型投资人的投资组合进行观察（20%全球股票、10%新兴股票、70%债券），其十年期绩效为106.2%，波动率为6.5%；但将新兴股票至配置比重自20%降为10%，保守型投资人之投资组合十年绩效不但增加为123.5%，其行情波动率亦仅仅小幅上扬为6.9%，显见10%的黄金资产配置，对于投资组合的确有立竿见影之强化效果。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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