林幽沃：美元再獲加息預期續命
關鍵字：美元，美聯儲，加息
美聯儲在昨夜公佈8月會議紀要的聲明，本次聲明小幅推高9月加息概率，在公佈前9月加息概率在93.6%，在公佈後加息概率小幅升高至94%。在本輪加息週期中，當市場預期加息概率高達90%以上，美聯儲基本上都實施了提高利率的措施。
以下為大田環球林幽沃對美聯儲8月會議紀要的總結：
1，通脹預期：在目前美國經濟數據強勁的情況下，委員們都一致認為未來通脹能夠穩定2%或至2%以上的水準，算是完成當初訂立的目標。
2，經濟環境：由於貿易分歧以及新興市場下行風險的緣故，委員們下調對美國下半年的經濟數據預期，但對本土經濟復蘇依然保持信心。
3，加息預期：有部分委員認為當前利率水準已經接近中性水準，意思則是認為加息即將面臨結束，貨幣環境從“寬鬆”時代結束。
從以上三點來看，當前利率水準已經接近美聯儲委員們的目標，相信加息有可能在2020年前結束，即達到3%-3.5%基準利率區間，美聯儲本次加息週期就有可能隨時結束。
目前美聯儲正在為9月利率決議暖場，由於在本次加息週期內第一次選擇在9月實施加息的措施，市場炒作美元升值的氣氛可能會較激烈，導致美元再度創出新高，而非美貨幣以及商品等可能會結束本輪反彈，再度陷入美元的掌握之中。
個人簡介：
從事外匯、證券等不同金融產品交易多年，具備成熟的交易系統，能夠精准追蹤主力資金動向，把握行情變化節點與走勢，對國際形勢及地緣政治變化有較為敏銳的觸覺。將多年外匯交易手法運用至貴金屬操作當中，擅長為廣大投資者提供環球股市資訊與國際匯率的走勢。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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