林幽沃：八月非农数据之夜 美元黄金谁能活下去
今夜将迎来每月一度的美国非农就业数据，在八月这个时间点上而言，没有美联储的加息预期影响，也没有重大事件的兑现，可以说得上是年内影响不大的非农数据。但是恰好在技术面上，美元犹如无底洞般猛跌，支撑如纸要破就破，而黄金面临的则是久久不能实体突破的1270关口。今晚非农迎来的究竟是黄金的高歌猛进，还是说美元的绝地逢生呢？
在接下去的分析里面首先说明一点，美元和黄金在特殊的事件背景下是可以走同向的正关联性，但由于今晚公布的数据关乎到美联储后续的加息步伐，所以在这种情况下美元和黄金大概率是逆相关的走势。
自欧央行、英央行和加拿大央行在葡萄牙举行的欧洲央行论坛集体“撒鹰”后，全球非美货币的崛起加剧了美元的弱势，这一点在加拿大央行成为美联储之后的第二个进入加息步伐后更为明显。另外，欧元的英国脱欧、法国大选等利空消息出尽后抢尽市场青睐，在2017年里涨幅将近达到20%，两大货币让美元抬不起头。
迎来转机的是美加货币对在近期有止跌征兆，而欧元由于多头长时间作战中途也没有出现明显的调整，如今晚非农数据整体偏好，有机会成为发转信号。
现货黄金在2017年内成周线级别震荡之势，上不破1300，下不破1200，无论多空方向上都无一致的表示。侧面可以看出现在市场避险情绪不高，但美联储加息已经逐渐兑现，多空方面都在等待下一个有利于黄金的热点所进行炒作。
针对今晚非农的建议，由于金价在昨日大幅回落至重要支撑1257附近并站稳回升，从走势上而言偏强，但尚未脱离1260-70的震荡区域，晚间交易思路按区间低位接多于上破区间追多为主，目标都看至1275-80区间。关注的是1262-63位置，实体不能下破1257。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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