预期Fed减码将放缓 10年期公债殖利率跳涨
关键字：美联储缩减量化宽松规模
联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)18日为量化宽松货币政策(QE)减码行动揭开序幕，沉重卖压一度带动美国10年期公债殖利率跳增，但随着殖利率攀高、买盘也跟着涌入，使得公债价格跌势得到收敛。公债价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。
根据Bloomberg Bond Trader报价，纽约债市18日尾盘时，美国10年期公债殖利率上升5个基点至2.88%；盘中最高一度跳涨9个基点至一个多礼拜新高2.92%，为11月20日以来最大单日盘中涨点。由于市场预期FED减码QE的脚步将颇为缓慢，因此买盘在10年期公债殖利率跳涨后便开始涌入。
FOMC 18日在结束为期两天的会议后宣布，自明(2014)年1月起每个月的买债规模减少100亿美元至750亿美元，其中400亿美元将购买公债、350亿美元购买机构担保不动产抵押贷款证券(Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities；简称Agency MBS)。FOMC另外并重申，在通膨率不超过2.5%的前提下，只要失业率仍高于6.5%，联邦基金利率都会维持在趋近于零的位置。
FOMC在会后新闻稿中表示，就业现况与展望逐渐改善，是他们决定减码QE的主要原因。联储局(FED)主席伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)18日会后则在记者会上指出，央行可能会进一步减码QE，一切端赖经济的表现而定。
在FOMC的投影片新闻稿中并显示，17位与会成员中，12位预估联邦基金利率会在2015年首度调升，另外有两名预估首度升息的时间点可能会落在2014年、三名预估是2016年。不过，FOMC强调，即使失业率已低于6.5%，联邦基金利率仍会有很长一段时间会继续趋近于零，尤其是当通膨率仍旧低于FED的2%目标之际。彭博社报导，SEI Investments Co.经理人Sean Simko指出，以FOMC的声明来看，FED显然对经济数据颇为满意，但却仍不敢太过大意。
华尔街日报报导，Pacific Investment Management Co.资深市场分析师Tony Crescenzi表示，FED成功让投资人把焦点放在利率政策上面，倘若QE减码是苦药、那么维持超低利率的展望就是糖果。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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