FOMC零利率将满5周年,旧金山FED估两年内不会变
关键字：FOMC零利率、FED
美国联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)零利率政策(简称ZIRP,0-0.25%)将在12月15日这一天届满五周年。令人叹息的是,别说没人知道零利率政策何时能够划下休止符,现在连买债计划何时结束都还在未定之天。
Thomson Reuters 3日报导,旧金山联邦准备银行(FED)总裁John Williams在受访时指出,美国失业率可能在不久后就会跌至6.5%、比市场预期的还要来得早。他说,联准会(FED)应该更积极地阐述最终导致升息的要件,以免市场因不确定性因素而被激怒、进而伤害到经济复苏进程。2015年才会重新取得FOMC投票权的Williams提议,FED一旦确认美国经济已经处于正确轨道、决定开始缩减买债规模,就该对外宣布全面停止买债的时点以及整个计划的买债总额。 Williams个人认为,即便失业率跌破6.5%,只要通膨持续处于低档、联邦基金利率就不该调升。他说,光是就业市场转好还不够,FED在缩减货币刺激政策之前应该确保美国经济能够持续增长。他个人预期2015年下半年联邦基金利率才会开始走高,买债计划将在未来一年内终止。
彭博社报导,Williams 9月4日表示,如果美国通膨持续下滑的话、或许有必要进一步采取货币刺激动作,但使用前瞻指引会比资产购买方案要来得好。 FED关注的通膨指针核心(排除食品和能源不计)个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数年增率9月报1.2%、与8月相同;自2012年5月起就低于2.0%,截至2013年8月为止只有两度出现反弹、且未曾出现连续两个月上扬的纪录;2013年7月的1.1%创2011年3月(1.1%)以来新低。2008年10月迄今,核心PCE年增率只有4个月(2012年1-4月)曾刚好触及2.0%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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