市场担忧美联储激进加息，美股大跌油价创逾七年新高
周二(1月18日)随着美债收益率全面上涨，以及交易员为美联储可能以更大幅度加息做准备，美元创近二周来最大单日涨幅。黄金期货录得连续第三个交易日下跌，投资者将注意力转向美联储下周的政策会议，以获得更多有关升息时间表的信号。美油涨逾3%，突破86关口，飙升至七年来的最高水平，在需求强劲而供应紧张的背景下，全球最大石油消费地区的现货市场变得愈发火热。
欧央行行长表示欧元通胀超预期
欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦（法国央行行长）表示，最新一轮新冠肺炎疫情不会妨碍到欧元区经济在2022年大幅增长的前景。通胀比我们先前所预料的更高，持续时间也超过预期。预计欧元区通胀将在2022年年底时回落至2.0%下方，这不是一个“盲目的确定性”。毫无疑问的是，如果欧元区通胀更加顽固，央行将采取行动。欧元区通胀将在未来两年于2%附近正常化。
货币市场预计美联储或一次升息50基点，那将是2020年以来最大动作
货币市场价格显示，越来越多投资者预期美联储可能逾二十年来首次大规模提高借贷成本。虽然加息25个基点仍是最有可能的情形，但掉期市场现在预计3月底前加息幅度将超过25个基点。鉴于本月政策会议预计不会有任何行动，这表明交易员至少正在考虑3月加息50个基点的可能性。自2000年5月以来， 美联储还从没有一口气加息这么多过。近日来围绕美联储更大幅加息的猜测升温可能加剧了周二美国国债跌势。 摩根大通CEO戴蒙上周警告称，美联储收紧政策可能不会像一些人预期的那样“和风细雨”，亿万富翁投资者Bill Ackman表示，美联储应该在3月加息50个基点，以重建公信力。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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