鲍威尔立场引起增长焦虑，美元走高黄金攀升
周四(7月15日)美元指数走高，收复前一日的大部分失地，因有关全球经济增长放缓的担忧导致避险资产需求升温，受美联储对美国经济的评估日益乐观推动，投资者对美元前景更加乐观；黄金期货价格低开高走，录得连续第三个交易日上涨，收于近一个月新高，投资者权衡鲍威尔在国会发表的证词，但似乎未发现采取大动作的理由。美油跌超2%，创近一个月来的最低收盘价，人们预期将有更多原油进入市场，此前有消息称OPEC产油国达成妥协，且美国燃料需求周度数据意外糟糕。
鲍威尔7月15日参议院听证会要点
FOMC将在未来数周讨论美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买事宜，相比减码QE，美联储在加息问题上所面临的考验更大。重申如果通胀预期上升过多，美联储将做出反应。不认为会出现广泛的通胀压力。金融条件高度宽松。不时感觉像是一个“泡沫”市场。
美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示：仍然需要评估需要实现的进展。至少会在几次会议上讨论减码QE。我相信价格压力是暂时的。如果年底失业率降至4.5%，美联储可能会调整政策。认为美国将在年底看到实质性的进一步进展。我的预期和美国将在2024年加息一致
圣路易斯联储主席布拉德：现在“是时候结束这些紧急措施”
现在形势已经使美联储可以开始缩减购债规模，布拉德认为：“现在是结束这些紧急措施的时候了。目前经济中出现的价格上涨是否只是非常暂时性的，这是联邦公开市场委员会内部辩论的关键。这是委员会必须努力应对的问题，这是相当高的通胀，比我们习惯的水平更高。我确实认为控制通胀预期将是一个挑战，基于TIPS市场，市场似乎给我们投了信任票。美联储需要在减码问题上保持灵活性。如果通胀确实在2022年回落，那么我们处于有利位置，但如果并非如此，那么决策者需要具有进行调整的能力。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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