美元涨势暂歇，避险货币多头初现
周四(5月13日)美元指数跌0.07%至90.72，此前一度下滑0.2%，周三该指数上涨0.7%；10年期美国国债收益率跌至1.657%，市场权衡经济重新开放迹象和通胀持续更久的风险。不过，彭博美元即期指数3个月隐含波动率触及4月以来高点后回落。瑞郎、日元等传统避险货币走高，与大宗商品相关的加元下跌。
美元多头料否极泰来
大田环球分析师预计，美元近期的疲软不会持续下去，相反美元兑大多数货币将走强，相对收益率(而非风险偏好)将继续成为未来几年美元的关键驱动因素，但与过去几周相比，它们最终将导緻美元走强；就风险偏好而言，考虑到经济增长前景乐观，风险偏好不会进一步减弱，尽管如此，多数衡量全球风险溢价的指标(如股市收益收益率、公司债息差和波动性)目前处于或低于疫情爆发前的水平，因此风险偏好也不会大幅回升，美国疫苗的推广尤其迅速，财政支持也特别庞大，美国的增长和通胀前景是发达国家中最好的，这最终将带动美国国债收益率再次开始上升，而且上升速度快于大多数其他国家，将推动美元整体走高。
欧元区疫苗注射前景若转乐观，欧元兑瑞郎将上行破位
另外，大田环球分析师还指出，欧元区国家的疫苗注射行动当前正进一步进入正轨，在美国疫苗出口增加的背景下，欧盟仍有望在6月底之前追上此前制定的疫苗注射进度，这对于欧元汇价走势前景将构成持续利多，尤其，欧元相对于避险货币瑞郎的走势有望因此进一步走高。
该行指出，在本周稍作触及100日均线的支撑后企稳后，欧元兑瑞郎后市有望进一跟随市场利多消息走高。本周二的低点1.1927有望成为阶段性的底部水平，上方短线目标将重新看向3月份的高位1.1152。
而分析师更指出，一旦欧元区疫情在疫苗的协力下如预期进一步回落，欧洲央行缩减政策宽松力度的时机也将来到，这一消息背景最终将会使欧元进一步走强，最终欧元兑瑞郎汇价将上攻至2018年的高点1.1255，更长期则将上看至1.1325。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.