国际金价料时隔三周重新收跌,美联储变政窗口期正在临近
在周五(4月30日),国际金价下跌,料时隔三周重新收跌,因强劲的经济数据推动美国10年期国债收益率上涨,削弱了非孳息黄金的吸引力。
而在北京时间16:18,现货黄金下跌0.09%至1770.65美元/盎司;COMEX期金主力合约上浮0.10%至1770.2美元/盎司;美元指数上涨0.11%至90.752。美债收益率上浮1个基点至1.643%。隔夜升至4月13日以来高位1.686%,本周累计上涨逾8个基点。
美国第一季度经济数据增长
美国经济在第一季加速增长,因政府主要向低收入家庭派钱,刺激了消费者支出,预计今年美国经济将出现近40年来最强劲的表现。
新打完疫苗的美国人益发增加外出和活动,由此而生的需求飙升令企业苦于供应瓶颈,使得物价上行压力也跟着水涨船高。
SPI Asset Management管理合伙人Stephen Innes表示:“这一系列连续强劲的美国经济数据给金价带来压制。”
他并称,人们宁愿在金价大幅上涨后趁月底进行获利了结,黄金仍维持买气,只是由于月末再平衡操作,买气没那么强而已。
美联储货币政策按兵不动
美联储在本周维持现行货币政策不变,但美国数据持续走强,将导致美联储在未来几个月的指引逐渐趋向鹰派。
大田环球分析师指出,美联储对经济情况的乐观评估,以及对风险的评估变得没那么悲观,暗示了“开始走向缩减QE资产购买之路”。
以美国目前仍比2020年2月少了逾800万个岗位来看,如果3月增加岗位的速度持续下去,到夏季时,就能追回半数缺口,许多分析师预计美联储将在夏季预告政策调整即将到来。
瑞银(UBS)分析师在一份报告中称,较高的美国实际利率可能会触发ETF资金进一步外流。并补充说,他们预计到年底黄金将跌至1600美元/盎司。
中国黄金协会周五发布,2021年一季度中国国内原料黄金产量为74.44吨,与2020年同期相比减产8.19吨,同比下降9.92%;其中,中国黄金、山东黄金、紫金矿业、山东招金等大型黄金企业(集团)一季度实现矿产金产量30.78吨,占全国的比重达52.25%。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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