美股大跌，美债收益率创新低
关键词：美债收益率创新低
1月4日，现货黄金出现大面积飙升，创下近两个月一来的新高，同时美元的疲软和美国十年期国债实际收益率创下历史新低，为金价提供了支撑，加上美股大跌也提振了黄金的避险需求。
分析师表示，利率低迷和美元疲软将推动金价进一步走高。尽管疫苗令市场情绪变得更积极，但今年金价预计仍能走高，受到通胀预期和负实际利率的提振。
周一美股三大指数走低，盘中跌幅一度均超2%。投资者当前预期在疫苗加速分发、央行提供进一步支持以及政府持续提供援助的情况下，2021年将能看到需求反弹现象。这推升了通胀预期，从而导致实际收益率（名义收益率与通胀之差）下降，同时也提振了黄金的吸引力。
周一美国十年期国债实际收益率跌至纪录低点的-1.124%。瑞银集团分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示，投资者正在寻找能从通胀上升中获益的资产，通货再膨胀因素目前也在支撑金价。
投资者关注周二佐治亚州的参议院席位决选，这次选举将决定哪个政党掌控美国参议院。分析师表示，有可能出台重大刺激措施，这将导致美元进一步下跌。本周的参议院选举可能会成为一个重大的颠覆性事件，金价因此上涨。
2020年金价的高位是能被突破的。如果通胀再次升温，那么在各国央行再次开始紧缩之前，黄金突破2500至3000美元/盎司区域是可能的。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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