美元现巨大反弹，金价受重创
关键词：美元现巨大反弹
9月10日，现货黄金出现倒V反转行情，在欧洲央行决议后，现货黄金明显上涨，但由于美股出现巨大跌幅，美元指数现巨大上涨，抵消金价上涨动力，转而下行回吐日内涨幅。同时美股大跌会让黄金投资者出手黄金来保持流动性。
随着美股大跌、英镑重挫，欧元则缩减欧洲央行行长拉加德消除对欧元升值过快担忧讲话后引发的升幅，帮助美元指数扭转了早先高达0.5%的跌幅。虽然欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，必须监控欧元汇率大涨对通胀的影响，但她没有发出任何迫切需要调整货币政策的信号，欧元涨势或有限。
美国实施新一轮财政刺激的可能性周四降低，精简版共和党抗疫刺激法案在参议院遭到民主党阻拦。分析师称，投资者继续对黄金逢低吸纳，但金价也缺乏上涨势头；预计更多的获利回吐将导致金价最终跌破1900。
分析师表示，在金价继续维持在关键的1900美元/盎司上方的情况下，其长期上行趋势短时间内是不会改变的。将金价自2015年低位推高到近乎翻番水平的这些利好因素都还在。
近期受到美国经济数据表现以及美元回升的影响，金价承压回落，自8月2000美元/盎司上方的水平下跌。要黄金市场失去动能，则美国经济要复苏到足够美联储大幅加息的水平。但现在距离这种情况显然非常遥远，找不到能带来这种情况的影响因素。
在可见的未来，美联储为了支撑美国经济会一直将利率维持在低水平。不过虽然长期趋势没有改变，但短期确实有一些风险，投资者们需要关注消费者情绪。后市美国经济将是一个长期的、极为缓慢的复苏，并且一直受到疫情风险影响，这对黄金来说是非常健康的环境。美联储预计将长期维持低利率，美元也就将因此承压。此外，通胀的升温意味着实际利率将继续走低，对黄金也是利好的。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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