黃金出現V型反轉，金價收回跌幅
關鍵字：黃金出現V型反轉
8月25日，黃金出現V型反彈，收回日內大部分跌幅，由於美元指數下滑，美債收益率回落，對金價有一定刺激作用。同時貿易關係的樂觀發展也壓制了金價的反彈動力，市場目前期待鮑威爾週四的江湖，希望得到更多市場指引。
數據顯示，美國8月消費者信心降至逾六年低點，因家庭對就業市場和收入感到擔憂；這令美元指數承壓，美元指數紐市尾盤回落至93關口附近，較日高下滑逾30點。
今年金價的上漲受到新舊資金的支持。分析師指出，2020年第二季度的資金流入是有記錄以來第二強勁的。我們認為，第二季度的資金流入中，大部分來自富有彈性的長期投資者。13-F季度報告顯示，近40家持股人持有超過3噸黃金，超過任何時期。最大的買家包括首次配置黃金的買家，以及老牌買家。
多數買家為較長期持有者，這對長期價格前景是個積極跡象。最大的ETP公司GLD的前15名持股人占了總流通股的22%，而在2012年的高峰時期，前15名持股人占了45%，這意味著還有增長空間。在我們看來，ETP持股仍是一個關鍵指標。這不僅顯示了戰略資金流入的強勁程度，也提供了一些線索，讓我們瞭解目前以信託方式持有的黃金的彈性有多大。
預計未來幾周價格走勢將繼續波動。儘管黃金與實際利率和美元保持著很強相關性，但近期的倉位配置是由疲軟的多頭驅動的，而非戰略性的長期配置。由於美元將進一步走軟、利率處於低位以及額外刺激措施的支撐，黃金的長期前景仍然樂觀。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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