黄金出现V型反转，金价收回跌幅
关键词：黄金出现V型反转
8月25日，黄金出现V型反弹，收回日内大部分跌幅，由于美元指数下滑，美债收益率回落，对金价有一定刺激作用。同时贸易关系的乐观发展也压制了金价的反弹动力，市场目前期待鲍威尔周四的江湖，希望得到更多市场指引。
数据显示，美国8月消费者信心降至逾六年低点，因家庭对就业市场和收入感到担忧；这令美元指数承压，美元指数纽市尾盘回落至93关口附近，较日高下滑逾30点。
今年金价的上涨受到新旧资金的支持。分析师指出，2020年第二季度的资金流入是有记录以来第二强劲的。我们认为，第二季度的资金流入中，大部分来自富有弹性的长期投资者。13-F季度报告显示，近40家持股人持有超过3吨黄金，超过任何时期。最大的买家包括首次配置黄金的买家，以及老牌买家。
多数买家为较长期持有者，这对长期价格前景是个积极迹象。最大的ETP公司GLD的前15名持股人占了总流通股的22%，而在2012年的高峰时期，前15名持股人占了45%，这意味着还有增长空间。在我们看来，ETP持股仍是一个关键指标。这不仅显示了战略资金流入的强劲程度，也提供了一些线索，让我们了解目前以信托方式持有的黄金的弹性有多大。
预计未来几周价格走势将继续波动。尽管黄金与实际利率和美元保持着很强相关性，但近期的仓位配置是由疲软的多头驱动的，而非战略性的长期配置。由于美元将进一步走软、利率处于低位以及额外刺激措施的支撑，黄金的长期前景仍然乐观。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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