黄金“过山车”走势引发市场分歧
关键词：黄金“过山车”走势
8月12日，现货黄金出现反弹，再度出现意外行情，在创下近年最大单日跌幅后，黄金出现急剧反弹，由于经济数据比较黯淡，引发市场对经济放缓的担忧。面对大起大落的黄金行情，投资者对后市发展出现分歧。
随着英国经济在第二季度创纪录地萎缩了20.4%，对疫情造成的经济损失的担忧，以及美元指数再度下滑，提振了黄金的避险吸引力。COMEX 12月黄金期货收涨0.1%，报1949美元/盎司。
继今年以来飙升逾30%之后，随着美国债券收益率走高，黄金的涨势突然停止。在风险偏好改善、即将有大量债券供应来袭的背景下，基准美债收益率本月以来已经攀升逾10个基点，渣打银行称，近期反弹反映了投资者预期疫情将得到控制。
分析师指出，贵金属在亚盘早盘跌至1862-1863美元区域的三周低点后，盘中出现大幅反弹。就目前而言，似乎已经止住了自8月7日创下纪录高点后大幅修正的跌势。与此同时，针对新冠疫苗的最新乐观情绪，仍然有力地支撑了全球风险情绪。这进而可能令投资者不敢大举押注看多，并限制黄金进一步走强，至少目前如此。
黄金是2020年表现最好的大宗商品之一，因为疫情重挫全球经济，促使央行和政府采取前所未有的刺激措施，令这一避险资产受到青睐。美债实际收益率跌入负值区域，也支撑了其作为避风港的吸引力。黄金仍有许多赫赫有名的支持者。在最近几周预测金价大幅上涨的银行中，美国银行预计会涨到3000美元。
此轮下跌是一次健康的修正，它让更多的人入市，所以价格将再次反弹，今年年底我们会看到新的历史高位，金价可能达到每盎司2500美元，银价达到35美元，支撑金价的基本面因素没变，美联储将在很长一段时间内保持鸽派立场，他们已经说过，他们将允许通胀超过他们的目标。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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