全球经济面临重创，低利率将是美联储长期计划
关键词：全球经济面临重创
4月6日，全球竞价受到巨大的通货紧缩得冲击，全球诸多国家因为控制疫情带来的危机而陷入经济停摆状态，失业率明显增加，这可能促使央行将利率长期维持在低水平。
令人担忧的是，这可能会延长自大萧条以来最严重的衰退。定价权的衰退使那些在经济景气时期大量举债的公司更难履行债务，这可能促使他们进一步削减薪资和投资，甚至是拖欠债务、破产。
尽管价格疲软或下跌对消费者来说似乎是利好的，但普遍的通缩性价格下跌可能对整个经济有害。由于预期价格会越来越低，家庭会推迟购买，而公司则会推迟投资，因为他们认为利润机会有限。
即使在冠状病毒危机缓解后，停摆带来的伤疤——失业率上升、消费者和企业信心受损以及就业机会交错，这些仍可能抑制价格压力，促使央行将利率长期维持在最低水平。
不过在未来道路上，所有的巨额资金（加上大量政府债务来支付对抗病毒的措施）可能会导致价格压力的加剧。
全球消费者价格指数将在2020年中左右某个时候暂时低于去年同期水平，这是数十年来的首次，其中大部分是由于油价暴跌。尽管上周由于有可能减产的报道而反弹，但油价自1月1日以来仍下跌了约55%。
甚至在危机之前，货币政策制定者就担心通货膨胀率过低，不利于其经济。现在，他们有更多的担忧理由。
欧洲央行理事会成员罗伯特·霍尔兹曼说：“不能排除通缩的可能性，但是我拒绝做出估计。如果通缩是由于实体经济的衰退，那么仅通过货币政策工具将很难解决这一问题。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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