避险货币受到提振，美元再次创下新高
关键词：避险货币受到提振
2月6日，美元指数创下今日新高，原因在于市场担忧公共卫生事件将对全球经济造成影响，有分析师调查显示，未来一个月里，避险货币可能会受到新的提振影响，并认为此次公共卫生事件会让美元的优势持续未来六个月。
全球各地当局都力图阻止病毒迅速扩散，金融市场也受影响。分析师预计这将支撑日圆和瑞郎等避险货币本月上涨2%-3%。 亚洲公共卫生事件也料支持已基本主宰汇市约两年的美元进入2020年仍维持高档，受访的分析师中，半数预测美元的优势将至少再持续六个月。
大田环球表示，只要消息面还是比较消极，美元、日圆和瑞郎很有可能仍会受到追捧，新兴市场货币将失宠。如果情况恶化，美元指数和日圆可能最多会上涨3%左右。在同样的情况下，瑞郎兑欧元料升值近2%。
但避险货币需求预计不会持续，大多数分析师预计未来12个月美元兑所有主要货币将下跌。 预计未来一年，欧元、日圆、英镑和瑞郎兑美元将走强。 欧元和英镑一年后涨幅料为4%左右，傲视其他货币。紧追在后的是日圆，一年后料比目前上涨逾1.5%。
虽然这样的看法已有接近两年的时间，但最新调查却明显发生变化。经常预期美元强势将至少持续六个月的分析师，这次信心没那么强了。 50位受访者中有22位称，美元的强势不太可能超过未来六个月时间。其余受访者则认为持续时间为6-12个月或者逾一年。
不过，有鉴于全球经济对美国的依赖，以及美元作为全球储备货币的作用，美元即便出现下滑，很可能程度有限。近期美元将得到来自新兴市场及其他风险国家的资金流入，但当这些资金流逆转时，她也不认为反转程度会很大。她认为美元12个月后会稍微贬值，或者温和贬值，因为美国存在衰退风险。这些充其量仅称得上是温和下滑。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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