美聯儲維持穩定，經濟前景可能出現新變化
關鍵字：美聯儲維持穩定
美聯儲將公佈年內最後一次利率決議，分析師認為應該關注三個重點，美聯儲對2020年利率預測是否會改變，美聯儲官員之間的分歧如何，目前失業率預期能否下調至低水準。
分析師表示，他認為美聯儲所謂的點陣圖將表明，到2020年利率不會出現變化；儘管2020年仍有一些指標可能暗示美聯儲加息一兩次，但他們懷疑多數FOMC成員認為未來一年不會調整政策利率。
基準聯邦基金利率的中間值將會升高，但只是逐漸升高；費羅利認為，到2022年底，中間點的位置該是2.125%，這使得利率政策保持在一個“寬鬆”的水準，或者在預測範圍內支持經濟增長。
分析師表示，美聯儲官員應下調對失業率在不引發通脹的情況下能維持多低水準的預期。美聯儲向來估計，如果不想觸發通脹風險，就不能讓失業率降至4.2%以下。但是，失業率已經連續兩年低於4.2%。
美聯儲也可能將他們認為既不刺激也不限制增長的“中性”聯邦基金利率從2.5%下調。Swonk說，“在不引發通脹的情況下，美國經濟仍能夠以低失業率和低短期利率運行。現在是美聯儲認錯的時候了。
分析師認為，點陣圖和鮑威爾主席的本周新聞發佈會應該表明，在可預見的未來，美聯儲將維持貨幣政策不變，儘管在條件允許的情況下可能選擇寬鬆，市場普遍預計，在今年連續三次降息之後，美聯儲將在12月12日會議上選擇維穩。
本周美聯儲利率決議料均按兵不動，美聯儲主席鮑威爾極有可能重申經濟仍持穩，雖然不確定性提升，暗示當前政策水準仍適宜，此外料強調實施進一步寬鬆貨幣政策需經濟前景出現大幅轉變。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.