特朗普再度炮轰美联储，美元转跌
关键词：美元转跌
虽然说美联储在9月利率决议中降息25个基点来为美元提供了一定的支撑，美元也因此而有所上涨。但是美国总统特朗普再度施压美联储，要求美联储实行更多的宽松政策来缓和美国经济，这点燃了市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，美元吐出大量涨幅。
尽管隔夜美联储9月利率决议鹰派降息25个基点为美元提供支撑，带动美元一度上摸至98.70，但美国总统特朗普再度施压美联储，要求其尽快采取更多宽松措施来“挽救”美国经济，点燃市场对美联储年内进一步降息的预期，美元回吐大部分上个交易日录得的涨幅。
美国总统特朗普表示美联储应降息更多次，因其他央行也降息，并表示美联储主席鲍威尔不知道怎么玩这盘游戏。
隔夜美联储9月如期将目标区间范围降低25个基点至1.75%-2%，决定自9月19日起将超额准备金利率(IOER)下调30个基点至1.8%，还将隔夜回购协议的利率下调30个基点至1.70%。
隔夜美联储鹰派降息，但并未承诺此后将进一步实施宽松措施，利率预期“点阵图”方面，从预期中值来看，年内剩余时间及明年恐不会再降息，更多持鹰派立场的委员为那些没有投票权的委员。不过我行仍坚持预计年内美联储将再降息一次，并于2020年暂停加息。
美联储并不想提前承诺未来将实现更多宽松政策，在未来货币政策决定方面，主席鲍威尔暗示将监测三方面，分别为全球政局及贸易不确定性，全球经济数据表现及美国通胀数据，因此10月初的贸易协商将为下次政策决定的关键考量因素，我行持续预计未来四次利率决议上，美联储将各降息一次，当前市场尚未对此预期进行充分计价。
从美联储政策声明和预测数据中，我们认为美联储准备好进一步放松政策，如果合适的话，就在未来数月内，预计美联储今年第四季度和明年第一季度将分别降息25个基点。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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