鸽派人物进入美联储，降息也难以满足特朗普
关键词：难以满足特朗普
美国总统特朗普提名经济学家克里斯托弗·沃勒以及朱迪·谢尔顿进入美联储，两名候选人可能让美联储更加接近宽松政策。而市场认为，即使美联储按照预计在本月降息，也难以满足特朗普的需求。
分析师表示，近期贸易紧张形势虽有所缓解，但我行认为美联储仍将进入宽松周期，因为全球制造业的疲软势头仍有增无减，通胀和通胀预期的低企可能会促使美联储进行一些“保险性降息”。预计股市会出现一些“迷你泡沫”，有65%的可能性上涨10%。
分析师指出，即使美联储如交易员预期的那样在几周内降息，也难以满足特朗普的胃口；如果美国经济持续强劲，美元也表现出相应的韧性，这种情况下，若美联储降息低于预期，特朗普政府对汇市的干预可能性将升高。
分析师说，“几十年来，美国财政部一直没有入市压低美元过，但如果特朗普任内发生改变，我们也不会感到惊讶。”Rai表示，如果美联储本月的政策会议没有实施宽松政策，汇市干预风险会增加。
沃勒是圣路易斯联储主席布拉德麾下的研究主管，在美联储6月份的会议上，布拉德是唯一支持降息的人。作为特朗普非正式顾问的保守派经济学家谢尔顿曾公开表示美联储应当降息，并主张应回归到金本位制。
分析师表示，特朗普最新有关美联储的举动是其试图控制利率的又一步。P分析师称：对于总统来说，这些人会支持他的立场。总统有权任命支持其货币政策观点的人加入美联储。
分析师表示，对到现在持续了十年的这波上涨趋势，我们不断听到质疑和担忧的声音，但它还是不断挑战着所有怀疑论调。底线是在财政与货币政策双重利好提振下，这轮商业周期有可能远长于很多人的预测。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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