欧元反弹受阻，受到美联储鸽派发言影响
关键词：欧元反弹受阻
欧元对美元处于承压状态，目前维持在单边震荡形态，。目前欧元已经步入了上行整理阶段，市场将密切关注晚点公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要，在美国经济增长放缓的情况下，可能有新的利率暗示。
目前市场已计价美联储12月会议纪要立场将偏向鸽派，特别是在上周美联储主席鲍威尔发表鸽派讲话后。上周鲍威尔作出了将对加息的“保持耐心”，如果缩表是目前问题的一部分将“毫不犹豫地调整”的“鸽派”表态。
不过若12月纪要立场比预期更加鸽派，可能助力欧元兑美元上穿100日移动均线，并一举攻破1.15关口。从欧元方面来看，稍早公布的德国11月未季调贸易帐好于预期和前值，此外中美贸易谈判进一步推进的乐观情绪均持续支撑欧元。
此外欧元区11月失业率降至7.9%，意外降至逾10年来最低，预期和前值均为8.1%，显示欧元区就业市场进一步收紧。
不过欧元区自身问题仍很多，如意大利政局难题未解，法国局势持续动荡，四季度德国经济可能陷入技术性衰退等等，在这种背景下，欧洲央行可能选择在更长期内按兵不动。
欧元兑美元抗跌性增强，但缺乏上涨诱因。美债，德债收益率差收窄，正对欧元兑美元的跌势起到有力的防御作用，对于欧元兑美元本周筑底的信心增强。
不过若没有增长改善和德债收益率上升，则谈不上欧元前景变得更亮丽。目前不应急于买入欧元，目前汇价可能继续区间震荡，欧元兑澳元和欧元兑日元可能会下跌。汇价逐步筑底，但缺乏上涨的诱因。
随着中美贸易谈判的推进，全球冒险情绪持续回暖，避险货币所受的支撑已略微减退，不过未来一段时间风险资产将仍面临调整，意味着周期性货币将在短线承受新的卖压，欧元兑美元近期的反弹料再度于1.15遇阻。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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