脱欧停滞，英镑空头再添新动力
关键词：英国脱欧
英镑兑美元在重要关口来回震荡，英国脱欧方面并无重大进展，美元走势以及整体风险情绪主导了市场汇价，英国首相将于欧盟执委会主席进行会面，分析师认为此次欧盟之旅就是为了书写脱欧的政治宣言。
英国首相特雷莎·梅表示，如果不能及时谈妥未来伙伴关系，选项将是要么启动北爱尔兰担保协议，要么延长脱欧过渡期，或者寻求替代协议。而英国工党领袖科尔宾称，议会将会否决英国首相特雷莎·梅的脱欧协议。
英国首相特雷莎·梅办公室在当地时间周二(11月20日)表示，特雷莎·梅将在当地时间周三(11月21日晚间)(北京时间11月22日凌晨至早晨时间段)前往布鲁塞尔，与欧盟执委会主席贾克会面，继续磋商英国与欧盟的未来关系。
对于特雷莎·梅可能与欧盟重谈脱欧协议的揣测看起来是想错了，相反她的欧盟之旅全是为了书写将伴随脱欧而来的非约束性政治宣言。
英国脱欧协商局势仍不明朗，诸如无协议脱欧、快速大选及二次脱欧公投等风险事件仍无法排除，英国央行对脱欧协商结果的反应机制为决定利率走向的关键，当前市场计价显示英国央行将于2019年加息20个基点，不过加息路径仍取决于脱欧协商结果，基本预期为英国与欧盟达成脱欧协议，此几率高达75%，而无协议脱欧的几率为25%。
整体而言英镑兑美元风险仍偏下行，英国议员试图实施即刻领导权挑战的动能正在降低，触发对首相梅领导权不信任投票的48封信还没有集齐，在欧洲研究所主席Jacob Rees-Mogg上周开始呼吁更换首相后，目前的进展有些令人意外。
有报道称唐宁街正在研究避免爱尔兰硬边境的新技术方案，即被称之为“最大便利化”的技术，如果能在未来的贸易协议中承诺这一“最大便利化”的选项或可缓和英国脱欧派议员的些许担忧，然而还不能相信这能够充分缓和他们对于梅的脱欧协议的所有担忧，包括英国可能无限期陷入欧盟的关税协议之内。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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