美联储九月加息已成定局
关键词：美联储加息
本周美联储将迎来9月利率决议，市场预计将再次加息，之前美元指数连续走低，在中美贸易战局势有所降温的情况下，美联储政策基调极为关键。若加息三次，将为重大鹰派意外，将在盘面上推高美元。
在此前两周连续收跌后，本周初市场波动性低企，美联储9月利率决议前紧张情绪逐步升温，美元指数维持窄幅震荡之势，不过欧洲央行首席经济学家普雷特称，局势在朝着好的方向发展，但速度很慢，带动美元短线快速回升。
当前美债收益率上涨，中美贸易紧张局势忧虑有所缓和。美国最新对华关税生效前夕，原定于本周举行的中美谈判被取消。中国发表白皮书表示，贸易谈判不能在美国关税大棒的威胁下进行，还阐述了对于中美经贸摩擦的八大立场。
北京时间周四(9月27日)02:00美联储将公布9月利率决议，并发表货币政策声明，同时公布经济预期和加息点阵图，CME集团的“美联储观察”工具，利率期货交易员预计美联储9月加息几率高达94%。
鉴于美联储9月加息几乎已板上钉钉，那么对于美元而言，能否逆转近期颓势的关键为货币政策声明的整体基调，对此两大投行发表了各自的预期。
上修利率预期“点阵图”，暗示2019年将加息三次，鉴于当前市场已计价美联储明年将加息两次，“点阵图”若得以上修，将为重大鹰派意外，将在盘面上推高美元，并触发风险厌恶情绪升温。
美联储将宣布加息25个基点至2.00%-2.25%，但并不一定释放任何重要信号，货币政策声明中重要的部分将不会改变，即使删除或改变“宽松货币政策立场是适宜的”这一表述，也将不会带来较大的市场影响。
利率预期“点阵图”方面，美联储最有可能暗示将于12月再度加息。在美联储仍愿意持续将利率再度涨回中性水平的情况下，当前预计市场将计价美联储按兵不动显得过为时过早，这将导致欧元兑美元在金秋剩余时间再度跌回1.15。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.