美土关系恶化，美元飙升非美货币苦不堪言
关键词：美土关系恶化
在美国对土耳其实施强硬的外交政策后，特朗普已授权对土耳其钢铝铝材征收双倍关税土耳其货币跌至纪录新低，美元暴涨非美货币苦不堪言，加上新西兰联储8月鸽派加息的影响未散，非美货币恐跌落谷底。
纽元兑美元击穿0.66关口至两年半新低，周四(8月9日)新西兰联储鸽派维稳，预计首次加息时间将在2020年三季度，比此前预期整整推迟了一年，纽元应声大跌下破0.67，目前相关卖压仍未减退。
美国对土耳其强硬的外交政策导致土耳其里拉创纪录新低，欧洲央行对欧洲银行业的土耳其风险敞口感到担忧，非美货币全面承压美元站上96关口。
最新消息显示，美国总统特朗普表示，已经授权对土耳其的钢铁和铝征收双倍的关税，将对产于土耳其的铝征收20%的关税，对钢铁征收50%的关税。美元兑土耳其里拉涨幅扩大至14%，续刷历史新高至6.3839。
此外美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯的偏鹰言论激活美元买需，导致疲软不堪的纽元兑美元再遭重挫。周四埃文斯发表鹰派言论，埃文斯表示，美国经济表现不错，年底前在加息一到两次是合理的。现在感觉通胀接近美联储2%的目标且可能维持在该水平。
较紧缩的全球流动性将损及市场对利空消息的容忍度，导致汇价更易于受到冲击，因政策及政局不确定性提升，全球经济增长步伐将慢于市场预期，导致风险周期变得更对称。
因此澳元及纽元波动性均值将仍进一步提升，新兴市场资本流极有可能反转，受全球经济增长周期影响的货币，如澳元、纽元及大部分亚洲货币等将跑输大市。
纽元和澳元均跌至短期公允价值模型下方，愈发体现了汇价前景的不确定性，当前环境下一旦宣布再度加征关税，二者将进一步走软，该行压力测试模型显示，目前不能拿排除纽元兑美元跌穿0.65，澳元兑美元跌破0.70的可能性。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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