贸易战争端影响渐现，大宗商品首当其冲
关键词：贸易战争端
美国总统特朗普近几个月引起的多个贸易争端的影响正在逐渐显现，尽管市场认为现在评估贸易战影响还为时尚早，但是经济指标，大宗商品流动情况和价格都开始显示出世界性的效应，可以作为一定的参考。
考虑到铜与制造业以及建筑业的关系，人们往往会首先关注铜。伦敦金属交易所铜期货clc1自6月初触及年内高点以来一直走低，8月1日收于每吨6172美元。与6月的峰值相比，这一数字下降了近16%。也就是正在6月份，美国提高了关税，并发表了越来越多加剧贸易紧张局势的措辞。
不过，中国对进口铜的需求尚未减弱。中国海关数据显示，中国上半年未锻造铜进口量同比增长16.3%。事实上，这一增速远远超过2017年上半年3.6%的增速，这表明中国不仅进口了更多的铜，而且还加快了进口的速度。
此外，铁矿石价格也在下跌，根据Argus Media的评估，铁矿石基准价格8月1日收于每吨66.50美元，较今年2月底79.90美元的峰值下跌近17%。不过，随着价格上涨和中国7月钢铁行业PMI创下7个月的高点54.8，远高于50的荣枯线。导致这种情况的根本原因是铁矿石市场的疲软以及钢铁行业的强劲表现。铁矿石因供应过剩疲软，而钢铁因为强烈需求和生产受限反而表现强劲。
随着中国的煤炭进口需求和煤炭价格均强劲上涨，煤炭是另一种似乎未受贸易争端影响的大宗商品。在2018年上半年，中国进口煤炭几乎增加了10%，而澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港的基准动力煤价格8月1日升至每吨121.75美元，为6年半以来的最高水平。
根据船运追踪数据，中国9月份从美国进口的原油量将下降。液化天然气的情况也是如此。但至少到目前为止还没有影响到全球定价。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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