欧元无惧希腊谈判破裂危机 下行幅度受限
关键字：欧元无惧希腊谈判破裂危机 下行幅度受限
欧元/美元本月以来已经上涨了近3.9%，这似乎与希腊濒临违约甚至退出欧元区的境况相矛盾。
由于美联储6月货币政策声明较预期鸽派，美元下跌，欧元兑美元周四（6月18日）升至一个月高点，在欧元区为希腊债务问题焦头烂额之际， 欧元深具弹性。
联合信贷（Unicredit）全球货币策略主管Vasileios Gkionakis周四表示，“欧元/美元自三月中旬以来一直上涨。这基本上告诉你市场认为希腊与欧元无关。”
欧元/美元周四突破1.1400，一度触及1.1435，自3月份触及12年低点1.05以来，该货币对涨幅已超8.0%。这样的涨幅发生在希腊与其债权人在月底达成协议避免其破产的前景黯淡的情况下。欧元区财政部长将在周四晚些时候和周五召开会议，但谈判取得突破的可能很低。
纽约BK Asset Management总经理Boris Schlossberg表示，“很多分析师对欧元的走势感到困惑，有些有趣的理论。其一，欧元区主权债券的收益率已经上升，这使得欧元比美元更有吸引力。其二，希腊脱离欧元区不是大问题。”
债务违约并不意味着希腊将退出欧元区，但这种风险上升。
Schlossberg表示，“市场自鸣得意，我们不知道后果将如何，但潜在的底线是市场并不担忧希腊会离开欧元区。这里的逻辑是，如果希腊退欧，就像坏账被剥离，这利多欧元。”
荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）驻伦敦高级货币策略师Jane Foley给出了欧元兑美元反弹的另一理由：欧元区经常帐盈余促使不安的投资者将资本撤回，这个欧元带来了上行压力。
Foley表示，“如果你考虑区域经常帐资本的行为，我们可以看到他们常常在危机时刻回归，看看日本数年前核危机后日元的流动吧。因此，说欧元是一个安全的避风港还为时过早，在某些情况下，欧元能表现出避险行为，我认为只是因为经常帐盈余。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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