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希腊退出欧元区概率低于三分之一

关键字:希腊退出欧元区概率低于三分之一

据路透社报道,周四公布的一份路透调查显示,今年希腊因为可能无法得到新贷款并可能发生债务违约而离开欧元区的概率不到三分之一。

尽管已历经数月谈判,但希腊总理齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)仍未能与国际债权人敲定协议。债权人坚持希腊应遵守削减预算和财政紧缩承诺。

希腊下月应该偿还国际货币基金组织(IMF)的债务。

“不幸的是,似乎还没有人愿意为希腊在欧元区的去留承担政治责任,”Bank Sarasin首席经济学家Karsten Junius称。

“因此,希腊经济进一步深陷衰退,能够及时偿还内外债的希望更加渺茫。”

路透对近70位经济学家的调查发现,希腊退出欧元区的概率从5%到60%不等。预期中值为30%,过去几次调查的结果都相对稳定在这一水平。

债务违约并不意味着希腊自动退出欧元区。在此前接受路透调查的经济学家曾表示,希腊政府可能会背弃支付承诺,但继续留在欧元区。


本文来源: 大田环球贵金属

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