美国4月非农变化可为美联储加息计划作参考
关键字：美国4月非农变化可为美联储加息计划作参考
据路透社报道，美国非农就业报告的受关注度历来高于其它数据，本周也不会例外，美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)可能在今年首次升息，尽管第一季经济大幅放缓。
美国经济受冬季严寒拖累，在2015年第一季几乎停止增长，周五即将出炉的4月非农就业报告将暗示第二季的情况是否在好转。
对于2006年6月以来首次升息的时机，美联储摆出了逐次会议推敲的态度，升息决定将只取决于未来经济数据表现。
上周美联储下调对美国就业市场和经济的看法，暗示可能等到年底才开始升息。
“他们会需要更好的数据表现来为升息提供依据，因此升息时机可能要推迟到2015年更晚，”俄勒冈大学教授及知名美联储观察人士Tim Duy称。
“从现在到6月没有那么多的数据，能引发政策行动。就业和通胀数据要大幅好转，才能促使美联储6月升息。”
美联储自2008年底以来一直维持利率接近于零。就业数据如果疲软，将强化有关预期，认为收紧政策会等到9月甚至更晚。
无论美国首次升息何时到来，投资者都只需回顾2013年美联储表明将放缓购债计划时的“缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)”，便可推测金融市场会出现怎样的波动。
“我们认为美联储了解升息过晚的风险，将来突然收紧政策…可能带来破坏性，”美银美林利率分析师Brian Smedley称。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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