美银美林调降美国二季度GDP增速
关键词：美银美林调降美国二季度GDP增速
周三(4月29日)公布数据显示，美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值上涨0.2%，预期上涨1.0%，前值上涨2.2%。
美银美林指出，这与去年的情况完全一致，当时预期下跌1%，初值上涨0.2%。
美银美林补充说，去年一季度GDP初值随后就被下修至负2.1%的低位，但这一状况仍能较容易地就被归咎于异常恶劣的天气和某些经济增长要素。虽然今年也存在所谓“特殊因素”，包括美国西海岸港口罢工和2月的恶劣天气，这些却已不足以解释当前的疲软数据，因此，二季度经济增速料难如去年那样录得显著的反弹。
该行认为，今年年初美国经济受到两个较大冲击，包括国际原油价格暴跌和美元快速升值，二者显然严重阻碍经济增长，且出现得早于该行预期。因而，未来几个季度强势美元仍将拖累经济增长，不过预计油价大跌的拖累将得到消化，因消费者将省下来的油费更多的用于支出。
考虑到这些因素，该行将美国第二季度GDP增速由3.5%调降至2.5%，并认为第三和第四季度GDP增幅均为3.2%。不过目前来说，今年美国GDP平均增速为2.4%，与去年步伐相吻合。期待已久的经济持续加速增长仍只在预测之中。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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