美联储主席耶伦为未来加息规划出“循序渐进”路径
关键字：美联储主席耶伦为未来加息规划出“循序渐进”路径
美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)为未来几年的加息规划出“循序渐进”的路径，并就过于激进的收紧货币政策的风险提供比以往更多的信息。
耶伦在为旧金山联邦准备银行赞助的研讨会准备的演讲稿中称，就像她的多数同事一样，她认为加息的合适时机尚未到来，但预期今年某个时点大环境将支持提高联邦基金目标的行动。
美联储于本月稍早在政策声明中移除了将于加息前保持耐心的承诺。耶伦与其同事已暗示可能在未来几个月内加息，现在他们则试图将公众注意力转移到首次加息之后的加息步伐上来。
耶伦提供了广泛的原因，解释美联储为何对于将联邦基金利率从近零水平向上提升保持谨慎态度：
1、潜在经济从历史标准来看一直保持疲弱，因此仍须以低利率来支撑就业市场的改善。
2、通胀仍保持在非常低的水平。
3、“长期停滞”的风险意味着经济无法在未来承受非常高的利率水平。
4、日本和瑞典在过去十年过早开始提升利率的经验让美联储选择保持谨慎。
5、美联储通过长期低利率来确保经济能走上较强劲增长的轨道，以避免再次陷入极端低通胀、高失业率与近零利率水平的情况是值得的。
耶伦表示，假使薪资增长、核心消费者价格和其他有关潜在通胀压力的指标走弱，以市场为依据的通胀预期指标进一步显着下降，或是以调查为依据的指标开始显着下滑，都将令她认为提高联邦基金利率是不适宜的。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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