欧洲经济复苏依旧脆弱 欧版QE成效尚待论证
关键字：欧洲经济复苏依旧脆弱 欧版QE成效尚待论证
北京时间3月12日18:00公布的数据显示，欧元区1月工业产出同比增长1.2%，远超预期的+0.1%，但环比意外下滑0.1%，此前市场预期为增长0.2%，前值由0.0%上修为+0.3%。据华尔街日报评论，尽管此次能源领域的分项数据表现较为出色，但是耐用品产出却出现急剧下降，致使1月工业产出数据整体录得下跌，表明欧元自2014年5月以来的持续贬值尚未真正对工业出口起到提振作用，整个欧元区的经济复苏仍然脆弱。有鉴于此，欧版QE能否帮助欧元区经济重回经济增长轨道依然是一个较大疑问。
欧洲央行本周一(3月9日)正式启动债券购买计划，以提振脆弱的经济复苏，以及长期处于低位的通胀水平。截至目前，据欧洲央行科尔(Coeure)表示，欧洲央行已经购买了98亿欧元的资产，这些资产的到期期限平均为9年。
德拉吉表示，QE计划将通过各种渠道帮助欧元区经济：(1)QE将导致证券投资组合的再分配；(2)QE计划将影响到各种资产的价格和信贷活动；(3)QE应能鼓励银行进行借贷，应导致金融状况有所宽松。欧洲央行诺沃尼(Nowotny)随后也发表观点称，QE帮助放松货币环境、支持投资和消费、帮助实现欧洲央行的通胀目标。
对此，欧洲央行管委同时也是德国央行行长的魏德曼表示，QE购买已经进一步降低了通缩的风险，长期通胀预期已经被固定下来，公司正在因欧元贬值而获益。德国2015年经济增速也正因此可能高于去年12月的预测。不过，魏德曼同时指出，现在评价QE还为时过早，而且货币政策并非欧元下跌的唯一原因。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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