美国债务危机对白银的影响
关键字：美国债务危机、白银价格消息面
债务上限指的是国债余额上限,是美国宪法赋予美国国会有权确定的美国联邦政府债务总额的最高限额。一旦到达债务上限,财政部将不能继续通过发行债券的形式增加公共债务。除非有政府信托基金等赎回其持有的债券,财政部才可以继续发行同等金额的债券进行筹资。自1939年以来,国会共提高债务上限八十多次,平均每九个月提高一次。从历史表现来看,美国提高国债上限早已成为一种习惯,但是在最近几年,由于债务上限占GDP的比例持续上升,受到公众的关注度也越来越高。美国两党意识到可将债务上限问题当作政治谈判的筹码,因此在提高债务上限的谈判上经常出现分歧。
美国政府的停摆以及债限问题也同样影响到了美联储的货币政策,这方面对白银的影响或许更为重大。如果美国政府长时间的停摆,对政府运行的影响将持续作用,最直接体现在影响到政府各部门对各项重要经济数据的采集以及公布，并且可能影响到美联储货币政策的步调。
美国国债市场具有高度的流动性和市场深度,国债收益率已经与政策利率一起,成为美国金融资产定价中的基准利率.国债收益率的变化将直接影响联邦代理机 构债券、市政债券、企业债券甚至国际债券的收益率.而美国国债的回购利率则因被视为无风险利率,而成为众多金融衍生产品定价中使用的基准利率.一旦美国国债出现违约,那么评级机构将下调美国国债信用等级国债收益率将会受到影响,进而引发全球金融市场动荡。若发生债务违约,白银的避险地位将急剧提升,无疑有利于白银价格冲高，从历史上债务上限谈判期间,白银价格都有比较好的表现。
在国际上的影响,美元作为外汇市场的重要投资货币,一旦美元下跌,其他国家的汇率将会提高,黄金白银等贵金属和大宗商品价格将会上涨(避险情绪的影响)。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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