王垣鑫：通脹數據提振鷹派加息立場，金價空頭或仍會發力
昨日早間亞盤金價回踩隔夜低點1696一線位置暫時企穩，不過日內反彈受到明顯阻礙，晚間美盤時段價格反彈到日內最高位1706附近後未能成功突破上方壓力，隨後金價持續大幅度回落，直接在淩晨時段下破前低並觸及1694一線低位，雖然現時價格跌勢暫時放緩但也並沒有明顯的反彈跡象出現。
通脹數據助攻美聯儲鷹派加息
週二公佈的資料顯示，美國8月整體CPI年率錄得8.30%，高於預期值0.2個百分點，低於前值的8.50%；8月核心CPI年率也較預期值高出0.2個百分點至6.30%，並且大幅高於前值5.90%。而週四公佈的資料顯示，由於汽油價格下跌利好支出，美國8月零售銷售意外上升，而美國上周初請失業金人數下降。這些都增強了美元看漲理由。美聯儲一直擔心，近40年未見的高通脹可能會改變消費者對當前價格衝擊粘性的看法。而隨著他們提高利率以降低整體經濟活動和需求，勞動力市場將有所減弱。這將使政策制定者抗通脹工作變得更加困難。
美國經濟存在不容忽視的潛在風險
美聯儲對高通脹反應遲滯，被迫大幅加息後導致美元飆升，引發的衝擊已經開始顯現。不少經濟學家已經開始質疑，經濟能否在失業率大幅上升的情況下度過這一輪通脹。美聯儲主席鮑威爾已經暗示，加息可能會持續更長的時間，並造成經濟痛苦。但鮑威爾承認，下定這種決心行動並不容易。美國經濟增速和蓬勃發展的就業市場將付出巨大犧牲。為了讓實際通脹與未來預期趨於一致，美聯儲別無選擇，哪怕不惜抑制經濟增長，這個過程會導致更多美國人失業。但即便存在避險環境，加息會提升非孳息資產黃金的持有成本，金價阻力最小路徑依然是下行。
昨日金價在經過一輪大幅度下滑行情後基本保持橫盤窄幅整理走勢，MA10均線體現出明顯的壓制效果，價格在MA10均線下壓後承壓下破整理區間，因此可以將MA10均線視為本輪下跌行情的關鍵壓力均線。目前MACD指標雙線仍在死叉過程當中，表示下跌過程或仍未結束，但KDJ指標三線持續在超賣區域內運行有調整需求，需要密切留意MA10均線對價格的壓制效果。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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