熊傲君：美聯儲堅決抗通脹，金價短期難有起色
關鍵字：美聯儲加息，美國通脹水準
導語：下半年的黃金價格走勢可謂十分低迷，直至目前位置還是整體節奏依然偏弱，儘管上周出現小幅回升，但就在剛剛結束的全球央行年會上，美聯儲主席鮑威爾再次釋放鷹派的言論，為了控制高通脹的風險而不惜一切代價，這意味著加息政策仍將維持，使得黃金價格在周線收官之際重新回落，後市或延續下探的風險。
雖然美聯儲今年已經進行了多次加息，而且在過去兩個月裡還連續加息了75個基點，但絲毫沒有動搖美聯儲繼續高通脹的決心，在傑克遜霍爾會議上美聯儲主席鮑威爾表明將堅持政策不轉向。即使可能會犧牲一定的就業市場資料，但也在所不惜，之前的通脹資料也有所降溫，不過離目標仍有很大的距離，所以不能在此時停止加息的腳步，因此對黃金而言，短期毫無疑問還存在極大的施壓力度。
造成金價維持弱勢的主要原因，是由於美元指數近段時間的表現實在太強勁，而造成美元走高的因素除了美聯儲保持激進加息以外，歐元上周跌至20年來的低點也是非常重要的利好。歐洲現在通貨膨脹接近兩位數，這在很大程度上是由持續的俄烏衝突而產生的能源危機推動，不僅如此，英國的物價壓力已經接近40年高位，導致英鎊面臨重大壓力，所以美元在眾星拱月下勢不可擋。
如無意外美聯儲在9月份的利率決議當中繼續保持大力度加息，目前唯一懸念是到底加息75個基點還是50個基點，但無論如何，只要在加息的週期上，黃金價格還是難以走出可觀的趨勢。由此可見，在2022年剩下的時間裡，金價要想大幅反彈的難度將會變大，多頭的空間恐怕需要謹慎關注，除非市場出現突發性因素。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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