美元止跌黄金回升，“恐怖数据”即将公布
周一(7月12日)美元小幅上涨，本周初市场谨慎情绪占据主导地位，打压风险人气，提振美元。黄金期货价格收跌，但仍连续第四个交易日维持在1800美元关口之上，美元攀升，美股达到创纪录高位，令金价承压。美油尾盘跌0.60%，报74.18美元/桶，对新冠病毒德尔塔变种传播将损害旅游出行、进而打压燃料需求的担忧令油价承压。
美联储减码QE、加息尚未取得进展
纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，在美联储减码QE和加息问题上尚未实现进一步取得实质性进展这一要求。通过购买美国国债和押贷款支持证券（MBS），都提供宽松。他倾向于FOMC先减码QE，然后再加息。现在判断通胀走势还言之过早。逆回购操作有助于美联储应对意料之外的冲击。对新冠肺炎变异毒株德尔塔的恐慌情绪可能是收益率下滑的一个原因。而明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利也提到，美国仍然有700-1000万人失业。美国劳动力市场到秋季应当变得更加强劲。我也认为美国通胀上扬是暂时性的。对于通胀问题而言，劳动力市场是最重要的因素。
美联储6月消费者一年期通胀预期创历史新高，通胀担忧加剧
美联储7月12日公布的最新调查结果显示，6月美国民众对通货膨胀的担忧水平达到自2013年6月以来的最高纪录。据最新调查结果，民众对美国通胀水平的预期中值为一年上涨4.8%，创下该指标的新高，三年上涨3.6%。此外，民众预期房屋价格也将继续上涨，一年上涨6.2%，远高于之前的平均水平3.7%，食品和汽油价格将小幅下跌，大学学费预期涨幅达到7%
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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