脱欧计划继续，英镑后市有上涨空间
关键词：脱欧计划继续
由于美国6月非农数据向好，提振了市场的冒险情绪，英镑兑美元也随之从低位反弹，但随后转跌，市场担心疫情的持续增加会引发新一轮的封锁，延后全球经济复苏，不愿承担过大风险，脱欧谈判仍未取得实质突破。
英国和欧盟有关脱欧后双方未来关系的谈判在周四(7月2日)提前一天结束，警告称双方之间仍存在巨大分歧。根据双方的声明，后续磋商仍将按计划下周在伦敦继续进行，政府官员称提前结束谈判并不表示双方已经谈崩。按照原定计划，本周这轮谈判最后一次磋商应该是周五在双方首席谈判代表弗罗斯特和巴尼耶之间进行。
英国的约翰逊表示，对贸易协定比欧盟首席谈判代表巴尼耶更乐观。我们需要达成一项良好的协议，即使不能达成协议，我们也有其它非常好的选择。我认为通过遵守欧盟规则取得进展是不对的，我们已经度过了危机最糟糕的阶段。
如果英国和欧盟达成协议，年底英镑兑美元可能涨至1.40，基本预期是基于英国脱欧协议前景。脱欧过渡时期已经过去差不多一半，英欧谈判尚未现进展，达成关于金融服务对等的协议并延长过渡期的最后期限已经结束，并且由于新冠疫情仍成为欧盟和英国双方政治和决策方面的重要事项，年底前达成新的英欧贸易协议显示时间愈发紧迫。即使英欧双方达成贸易协议，2021年双方也有可能出现新的贸易问题，如果双方未达成协议，那么经济影响可能更大。
，尽管经济前景黯淡，但英国资本市场仍有复苏希望。今年第一季度，英国国内生产总值出现了自1979年以来最严重的收缩，贸易逆差扩大到211亿英镑(264亿美元)。
分析师认为，英国将受益于全球经济复苏的有利前景，认为英镑将是美元走软的最显著受益者。预计美元将下跌，因避险资金流向发生逆转，且11月美国总统大选前政治不确定性上升。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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