多种因素支撑金价，金价维持涨势
关键词：金价维持涨势
10月9日，现货黄金维持上涨趋势，因贸易担忧重燃加上政治不确定性让股市有所下滑，市场寻求避险，但黄金仍处于千五关口附近。同时美联储将公布9月政策会议纪要，市场将从中找到美联储十月降息的线索。
美联储主席鲍威尔周二表示对进一步降息持开放态度，并称美联储可能扩大资产负债表，以确保货币市场平稳运行。他同时强调，不应将恢复资产负债表扩张视为量化宽松。
美联储今年以来已降息两次。周二数据显示，美国9月生产者物价指数(PPI)意外下滑，同比增幅降至近三年来最低，可能为美联储提供本月降息的空间。
此外，北京时间周四02:00，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将公布9月政策会议纪要。投资者将从中寻找美联储是否会在10月会议上降息的线索。
随着全球紧张局势升级，有迹象显示经济增长放缓，且股市下跌，更多投资者开始转向黄金。全球黄金支持的ETF持有量已经连续17天增长，持续时间为2009年以来最长。
资金流入黄金的势头可能会持续下去，并维持未来6-12个月金价将涨至1700美元/盎司的预期。ISM制造业和服务业数据显著疲软，表明全球贸易放缓开始对美国经济产生影响。
随着美国乃至全球经济形势不确定性上升，美联储在最近几个月已两度下调利率，而市场预期还会有更多降息。黄金已经受益于市场情绪的转变，法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)认为，这种情况会继续下去。
虽然美联储主席鲍威尔将7月份的降息描述为周期中调整，但这并没有打消市场对进一步降息的预期。基准10年期美国国债收益率在7月份突然下跌，下跌速度甚至超过了低迷的通胀预期。这使得以美国通胀保值债券(TIPS)衡量的实际收益率跌至零附近，而黄金价格则攀升至1500美元/盎司。
展望未来，预计美联储将在今年12月、明年3月和6月分别降息25个基点。这意味着在当前周期结束时，联邦基金利率的上界将在1.25%。他指出，如果美联储比预期的更加激进，金价就有可能超出预期水平。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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