金价高位震荡，市场聚焦美联储决议
关键词：美联储决议
9月17日，现货黄金低位回升，价格整体维持在千五关口附近，而在本周的美联储决议公布之前，市场仍保持一定的谨慎态度。金价在早些时段价格波动上涨幅度超过1%，而周末沙特阿拉伯遭遇的袭击进一步加剧了中东的紧张局势。
周二，美联储将正式召开9月货币政策会议。投资者在美联储为期两天的货币政策会议之前采取观望态度，目前人们普遍预计美联储将在当天晚些时候开始的为期两天的会议上降息。继金融危机以来美联储上次决议首次降息后，这将是该行近期的第二次降息。
市场似乎已经消化了降息25个基点的预期。不过，交易员们大幅增加了对不降息的押注，在周一油价大幅度攀升之后，交易员担忧通胀上升会限制美联储降息。
分析师称，市场主流还是预期美联储即将降息25个基点，油价飙涨，令市场对美联储“不用急着降息”的预期也突然大增。尽管油价传导至核心通胀的比例很小，但通胀压力上行会缓解美联储对降息的紧迫情绪。
分析师指出，因为本轮油价上涨代表地缘政治风险高企，消费者信心也会被汽油价格上涨冲击，更需要美联储“保险式”降息来对冲。而美国作为主要产油国受油价飙升损害有限，将令降息幅度不会过于激进，降息25个基点即可。
分析师表示，来自沙特的消息增加了各国央行提供更多货币政策支持的可能性，预计能源成本上升实际上是对消费者征税。“我们认为，这增加了未来几周央行将出现更多鸽派政策的原因。”
分析师指出，“金价周一从地缘政治担忧情绪中中受到了一些支撑，但金价还没有突破1,520美元的水平，这表明黄金还是有点脆弱，当前1,480美元是关键支撑位。 ”
针对美联储本周的利率决议，又分析认为，如果美联储本周没有降息，势必将震惊全球，首当其冲的要数黄金了。
分析师称，如果美联储本周违背市场预期不实行降息，金价短期可能逆转此前的涨势，将快速下测1455美元。此外，还有分析师称，如果美联储本周不发出进一步降息的信号，将支撑美元，这不利于金价走势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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