黄金再创新高，直指千四关口
关键词：千四关口
美联储在利率会议中声明取消对利率政策保持“耐心”的表达，下调今年通胀水平的预测，美元指数出现大幅下跌，而现货黄金则触及到近六年来的价格最高点。同时全球央行可能开启宽松政策，金价突破千四关口只是时间问题。
本周的美联储利率决议之后，黄金市场迎来大涨，一度突破1390美元/盎司水平，刷新近6年新高。美联储在政策声明中取消对利率政策保持“耐心”的表述，并下调对今年通胀水平的预测。
不过，美联储官员在政策路径上存在明显分歧。根据最新点阵图，17名美联储官员中有八名预计今年年底前降息，八位预计维持不变，一位预计加息。
分析师表示，受到降息预期的影响，美元走弱，而黄金市场涌入大量空头回补，推动金价大幅走高。
在这种情况下，黄金的目标变成了1400美元/盎司关口，而关键的就是要维持本周的动能。从长期来看，黄金要维持在1400上方将是比较困难的，因为降息后风险资产会获益。
在美联储会议之后，黄金迎来大爆发。市场认为美联储的声明为即将出台的宽松政策做好了准备。这给债券收益率和美元带来了压力，提高了黄金的相对吸引力。
除了美联储，欧洲央行此前也是“鸽声嘹亮”，欧洲央行准备在7月份审查进一步量化宽松的方法和影响。澳大利亚央行行长Philip Lowe也发表了鸽派讲话，而日本央行重申了其对已经超宽松政策的承诺。
现在的焦点转向了英国央行，英国央行表示今年晚些时候CPI可能降至2%目标以下。自5月份以来，随着全球贸易紧张局势加剧，英国脱欧可能性上升，经济增长面临的下行风险有所增加。但无协议脱欧可能性增加，假设英国顺利脱欧，我们需要以渐进和有限的速度持续收紧货币政策。
除此之外，黄金市场的供求关系也影响金价走势。在过去几年里，低价严重损害了黄金市场。我们没有看到太多的勘探活动。如果黄金需求增加，出现某种形式的短缺也不会令人感到震惊。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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