全球市场波动激烈，外汇市场波动不大，平静之下有大危险
关键词：全球市场波动激烈
贸易情绪让全球股市出现激烈震荡，其他投资资产的波动情况也变得十分激烈，但是外汇市场的波动情况几乎没有什么太大的变化，使得外汇投资者多少有些尴尬。
贸易局势的担忧情绪升温，衡量汇市波动的指标却仅小幅升高，汇市的冷淡反应与股市和利率市场波动率的跳升形成了鲜明对比。传统的避险货币同样没有出现大的波动。
面对各种纷繁芜杂的宏观新闻，外汇市场波动率显现出的诡异平静正日趋普遍。有人说这是因为出现了结构性的变化，只有特定的流动性不足才会令市场发生闪崩。而头寸调整动态和近期的一些特殊因素也抑制了市场波动。
分析师称，“这可能更多地是一种结构性的变化，而不是周期性问题，现在市场更趋向于对闪崩作出反应，而不是在所有资产波动率都升高之时随同走高。如今的货币波动，比如新兴市场货币，大多是源于特定的内部因素”。
在每日交易额高达5.1万亿美元的外汇市场，分析师提及的流动性不足已经在一连串的迷你版闪崩中彰显威力。1月时，交易员曾被日元兑美元汇率在短短七分钟内的狂飙打了个措手不及，这一幕发生在从纽约市场收盘到东京市场开盘之间的“逢魔时刻”(witching hour)，这段时间的市场交易量稀疏。
分析师表示，眼下抑制汇市整体波动率的因素之一是澳元隐含波动率的大幅下滑，本周澳洲联储未能如市场所愿降息。土耳其里拉等一些新兴市场货币则在一些宏观消息面影响下已然承压。分析师警告，考虑全球经济前景和风险偏好的不确定性，汇市平静无澜的局面不会持久。他建议客户增加做多汇市波动率的押注。
分析师表示，外汇波动率要想真正提升，需要全球货币政策有更明显的差异；她在周二的一份报告中称，投机者已经持有非常多的美元多头头寸，抑制了波动催化剂，她说，“想要对冲贸易不确定性风险的投资者可以做多”三个月期韩元隐含波动率，因它仍处于历史低位。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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